Disney’s eagerly awaited sequel, Moana 2, has recently secured its position on long-lead box office tracking systems, indicating a projected opening of over $100 million during its run from Wednesday to Sunday of the Thanksgiving week. Tracking service Quorum estimates that between $75 million to $82 million of that sum may be garnered during the traditional Friday to Sunday window. This initial forecast signals a substantial turnaround for Disney, which has seen a decline in blockbuster animated titles since Frozen 2’s impressive $125 million opening in 2019.
The original Moana, which premiered in 2016, debuted at $82 million over a five-day period, ultimately amassing $248.7 million domestically. If current estimates hold, Moana 2 could set records for the biggest opening for a film debuting on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, surpassing even Disney’s own Frozen, which achieved $93.5 million in its wide opening.
Moana 2’s expected debut positions it ahead of other franchises, such as Universal’s Wicked: Part One, projected to earn between $67 million and $74 million, and Paramount’s Gladiator II, estimated at $42 million to $47 million. This competitive edge strengthens Moana 2’s status as a must-see family film during the holiday season—a time when Disney has historically dominated the box office with animated releases.
One industry executive has pointed out a notable demographic following Moana 2: young women under 25, who resonate with the film’s themes and characters. Although male interest appears subdued thus far—unlike the previous success of Inside Out 2 that debuted to an outstanding $154.2 million—there are precedents that suggest future growth and box office performance could shift as the release date nears.
The positive projections for Moana 2 can also be attributed to the success of its marketing strategy. The sequel’s inaugural trailer has already broken records, garnering 178 million views within the first 24 hours of its release, outpacing previous Disney animated hits such as Inside Out 2 and Frozen 2. This enthusiasm demonstrates that the sequel is striking a chord with its audience, setting high expectations for its commercial success.
Disney CEO Bob Iger previously announced the sequel’s development, stemming from what was originally planned as a Disney+ series. With a strong team behind the project—including directors Dave Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller, and a talented music composition team featuring Grammy winners—expectations are high for both the film’s critical acclaim and audience reception.
As Moana 2 prepares for its release, it will find itself in competition not only with the aforementioned films but also for screen space in multi-theater formats such as IMAX. This competition could impact its overall earnings, making the tracking numbers even more vital as they evolve leading up to the film’s debut.
As the industry watches the unfolding box office race this Thanksgiving weekend, all signs indicate that Moana 2 is poised to deliver significant financial returns for Disney, thereby reaffirming the studio’s ability to capture and maintain audiences with their animated offerings despite recent market challenges. The race is on, and fans of the original film are ready for another enchanting journey.
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